Southern Sudan: security in the balance

With independence for Southern Sudan just two months away, thorny issues are yet to be resolved. The most pressing one is the challenge to guarantee a higher level of security throughout the region. Deadly tribal and militia clashes have cast a dark cloud over the upcoming celebrations to mark the birth of a nation.

The UN estimates that at least seven rebel militias are fighting the SPLM across Southern Sudan in clashes that have cost more than 800 lives this year.

The Lakes region is at the centre of these tribal conflicts. Areas including Jonglei, Akobo, Burkamal, Bor, Chiban, Chikol, Kony, Ubor, Wit and Kueychar have all been scenes of recent violence.

Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in Agok, Bhar al-Ghazal after recent clashes. UN photos: Tim McKulkaYet interpretations differ: while some people express serious alarm, others, particularly in the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), seek to minimise the impact and divert attention away from these security threats.

This explicit contradiction in attitudes is also apparent within the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS). On the one hand, the prevailing trend represented by the SPLM is to attribute all conflicts in the south to tribalism and disputes over land and cattle. As SPLM official spokesman Ben Matthew put it, "These are old conflicts with old and known causes." In the same spirit, Gier Chouang Aloung, the Minister of Internal Affairs in GoSS, refers to isolated events that do not affect the overall security situation in the south.

The SPLM employs a different strategy. Accusing the north of supporting rebel militias, it rejects media coverage of the events, which it says are overdramatised. Perhaps the most telling statement in this regard is from Philip Aguer, spokesman for the SPLA, who stressed that "every insurgent militia, including the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), receives help from the Sudan Armed Forces' (SAF) intelligence. They know all details about the movement of these militias and we are aware of the details of their involvement."

In another camp, some southern leaders say these clashes go beyond old tribal animosities and create a state of chaos. Joseph Malwal, the Minister of Tourism and leader of the United Democratic Front (UDF), described these tribal conflicts as a "security threat," adding, "this is caused by failure in management on the part of the SPLM after they took over Southern Sudan's affairs."

Some anticipate a continuation of the violence that could consume the emerging nation. This expectation is ramped up in a recent statement by rebel leader Peter Gatdet, who told the Sudan Tribune that a large portion of the SPLA has joined his forces, and that they are in control of two areas in Unity State.

Such claims reinforce dark predictions about the future of Southern Sudan.

The GoSS, meanwhile, dismisses such bleak scenarios as pure illusion. As the Minister of Internal Affairs recently commented, "The South will not be a new Somalia. Those waiting for things to turn bad in Southern Sudan will be waiting a long time."

For the 800 lost in the bloodshed, the waiting is over.

Comment by Hassan Barakya