NCP and SPLM-N: Hopes for a peaceful future
Negotiations between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) in Addis Ababa through the mediation of the African Union is a dialogue between factions of one state -- Sudan. The next round of negotiations is set to start beginning of next month.
The signing of the oil agreement between Juba and Khartoum allowed both South Sudan and Sudan to escape the UN sanctions stipulated in the 2046 UN resolution. By implementing the resolution, Khartoum had to agree to dialogue with the SPLM-N, although not truly being convinced of the negotiations.
The NCP and the SPLM-N’s negotiations will face some challenges.
The government of Sudan believes that the SPLM-N does not represent the people of Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan.
The SPLM-N on the other hand relies on regional and international backers to set the legitimacy of its presence on the ground, which is strengthened by its military capacities.
Dr. Haj Hamad.
The political analyst Dr. Haj Hamad exposes another side of the contrast between the NCP and the SPLM-N with the leftist background of the leaders of the SPLM-N constituting a psychological barrier for the NCP leaders who come from a Muslim background”, thus making a proximity of opinions challenging to say the least.
Neither of the two parties seems optimistic about these negotiations nor eager to enter them. Dr. Kamal Obeid, the head of the government delegation negotiating with the SPLM-N, laid out a number of conditions before entering any negotiations with the other party. The SPLM-N is not keen neither to sit at the negotiation table with the NCP.
But things do not look like they would satisfy the two parties’ desires, as regional and international interests and agendas seek to write the last chapter of the Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile war.
Therefore a number of observers believe that the extreme positions of some individuals, such as the one of Kamal Obeid, do not serve the true interests of the ruling party, but are the ideas of an extremist minority group within the ruling party. Such groups simply refuse dialogue as a principle.
The accusations between the NCP and the SPLM-N flow back and forth adding more mistrust to the negotiation process.
Yasir Arman.
The Secretary-General of the SPLM-N, Yasir Arman, said in an interview published in the online newspaper ‘Sudanile’ on August 12: The NCP distorts facts and shuffles papers. They are very aware that the decision of the Security Council and the African Union talked about the dialogue with the SPLM-N in Sudan,” yet none of the two parties seems to be eager to engage in these negotiations.
Obeid announced that he is desperate to achieve significant progress in the next round of negotiations, specifying however that reaching a settlement with the SPLM-N requires addressing the security aspects of the crisis which are politically and militarily entrenched in South Sudan”.
According to Salah Ad-Duma, Professor of International Relations, any agreement between Khartoum and Juba has no value without resolving the issues of Southern Kordofan and the Blue Nile”.
Prof. Salah Ad-Duma.
No agreement will hold between Sudan and South Sudan in case the war continues in those areas. So it is very necessary to reach a political agreement with the SPLM-N in order to pave the way for dialogue with South Sudan.”
Despite these challenges, for some observers the relationship between the government and the SPLM-N is key to the solution of the problems between Sudan and South Sudan.
Haj Hamad adds: The reality now dictates that it is time for the protracted war in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile to end. It is imperative for the Sudanese government and the SPLM-N to enter substantive dialogue in order to put an end to the human suffering in the two states.”
It is indeed crucial for both parties, the NCP and the SPLM-N to reach a solid and genuine agreement, for the negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan to improve as well, because it is only with secured and safe borders that both countries can live in peace.
