Abyei tensions loom between the two Sudans
South Sudan has indicated it wants to press on with the referendum in the disputed region of Abyei, even if Khartoum fails to agree on a date.
We will hold the referendum on the set date (in October), whether Khartoum agrees or not,” said Co-Chairman of the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee Edward Lino. The Sudanese government does not have the right over the region.”
Should the AU fail to set a specific date in October, the Referendum Commission and the Abyei people would determine that date.” The two nations continue to dispute Abyei, a pasture-rich region which has been dubbed the Kashmir of Sudan”.
The referendum will let Abyei residents choose whether to remain part of Sudan\'s South Kordofan region or join the Bahr el-Ghazal region in South Sudan. Originally planned to take place alongside South Sudan’s 2011 vote on independence, the ballot was postponed indefinitely after many died in fighting in the region.
Last October, the African Union proposed to hold the referendum in October this year. Lino, former security chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), said the Abyei Area Referendum Commission would approach the African Union regarding the vote timeframe. Should the African Union fail to set a specific date in October, the Referendum Commission and the Abyei people would determine that date,” he said.
An international observer, who declined to be identified, told The Niles that the referendum is technically impossible since there has been no proper registration process for residents. He argued that there is insufficient time to carry out the logistics needed to enable an October ballot.
Observers fear that conflicts may flare up again, warning of a reenactment of 2007/2008 clashes between the SPLA, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and fighters from the Misseriya tribe, a group of nomadic cattle herders who typically spend around six months in the region.
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Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan: The Crisis in AbyeiIt remains unclear who will be technically eligible to vote. Juba argues the Misseriya, as temporary residents, should not be registered but only the permanent Dinka residents can decide the region\'s future. Khartoum, however, has pushed for the Misseriya’s participation, stressing that the months they spend in Abyei form a crucial part of their nomadic lifestyle. This difference of opinion has provoked repeated postponement of the referendum.
Al-Jazeera-net website published the response of Misseriya chieftain Mukhtar Babu Nimr who said they will stay in Abyei, either over or beneath its soil”, according to a report posted on the website in late August.
All options are open,” Lino warned, including a return to war, should the Khartoum government refuse the AU solution, which is supported by UN Security Council.” He believes that rejecting the referendum on the disputed border region of Abyei in October by the Sudan and the Misseriya is a desperate attempt to incite sedition”.
Some tens of thousands of Ngok Dinka have returned to the southern part of Abyei in recent months, with encouragement from South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir Mayardit who has also relocated officials to the region. The Northern part is held by the Misseriya, meaning that Abyei is effectively divided and likely to stay that way, observers say.
The Misseriya will stay in Abyei, either over or beneath its soil”.
Amid the tension, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) has played a key role in keeping the peace in the region. In his new cabinet, following July’s surprise reshuffle, Kiir has kicked out the previously powerful Abyei faction, a move which might improve chances of negotiations with Khartoum.
He said South Sudan would approve the referendum, whether or not Sudan does.
Khartoum, meanwhile, has warned it would block the vote if the Misseriya tribe are not involved. Head of the Parliamentary Committee for Defence, Security and Foreign Relations Mohammad Hasan said Sudan would not agree to hold the referendum in October without the tribe’s participation and he rejected any unilateral action by South Sudan.
The AU-proposed Abyei referendum will not be held,” said the Sudan Chairman of the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee, Al-Khair al-Fahim, adding that the region is still subject to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement’s Abyei Protocol of 2005 and the internationally-sponsored Agreement on Administrative and Security Arrangements of 2011.
Al-Fahim told the Sudanese Media Center -- widely considered a media outlet of Sudan\'s National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) -- that the AU delegate told him that he had discussed the Abyei question with Thabo Mbeki, the head of the African Union High Level Implementation Panel, who maintained that he would not support a unilateral referendum, according to the Sudani website.
Abyei is Sudanese, and there is no room for compromise over its Sudanese identity.”
The Sudanese are not unified on the Abyei issue. In contrast to the stance of the ruling National Congress Party, the Popular Congress Party Political Secretary Kamal Omar Abdel Salam said that Abyei belongs to its people and they should decide their own fate. Accusing the National Congress of delaying a resolution to the Abyei dispute, Abdel Salam said, the NCP does not want to bring this issue to an end, and it tries to turn it into an ongoing case”. Only the political will of the region’s people could resolve the dispute, he said, adding that the party insists that Abyei must be governed by its own residents”.
The Arab Baath Party, however, remains uncompromising. Party spokesman Mohammed Ziauddin said: Abyei is Sudanese, and there is no room for compromise over its Sudanese identity.” He rejected holding a referendum over any Sudanese territory. The Dinka Ngok must coexist with the people of the region within the Sudan, and if they wish to move southward, they must do so without Abyei,” he said.
Amid the political tug of war, a peaceful solution to the problem remains remote. It needs political will from the two parties, as the strategic expert and academic researcher, Al-Noor Adam told The Niles. (It) continues to be an intricate issue, marred by conflicting interests of the two states and by the region’s nomadic Misseriya and Dinka Ngok tribes. The two governments must play the role of an overseer, leaving the residents of the area to sit down and negotiate a final settlement for the issue.”
