The prospect of a violent scenario in Sudan is looming
With the dawn of each day on the political scene in Sudan, the prospect of sinking into violence is still very real. Up to this moment the two ruling partners in Sudan, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), have failed to reach final understanding on a number of unsolved issues.
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The Darfur crisis may rage again, following the resurgence of violence between armed groups and Government forces in Northern Darfur. In addition, President Al-Bashir's decision to apply Sharia law if the South separates is causing a heated debate and controversy, and is fiercely objected to by the other political powers in the Sudanese political arena.
Post-referendum issues: a gunpowder barrel
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed by the two sides in Nairobi at the beginning of 2005 stipulates a post-referendum period in which all matters will be settled according the outcome of the referendum, whether unity or separation. And even though this period will expire by July 2011, the pace of progress is still slow on all issues, such as the demarcation of borders, Abyei, citizenship and debts.
A new state without clear borders will result in a war between the North and the South.
Each of these topics may trigger an internecine war between the North and the South if separation becomes a reality and if radical solutions are not found. A few days ago a prominent leader in the NCP, Dr. Qutbi Al-Mahdi, said that the establishment of a new state without clear borders will result in a war between the North and the South.
Earlier, the Governor of Central Bank of Sudan said that failure to reach a final agreement regarding the previous debt, totalling US$35 billion, could lead to a military confrontation between the north and the south.
Misseriya girl - UN Photo / Tim McKulka
As for the mother of crises, Abyei, the two sides reached a stalemate despite all the efforts exerted by the U.S. administration and the African Union, not to mention the other initiatives put forward by the international community.
The Misseriya tribe has already started to move from their bases in Muglad, Babbanoussa, Al-Foula and others in their journeys destined for areas far from Abyei in the South, which paves the way for a conflict over land even if the politicians reach an agreement at a later stage.
Darfur: the resurgence of war
The ever tense Darfur topic did not enjoy a continuous peaceful period since violence erupted there in 2003, and Darfur is still burning despite the many agreements signed between the Government and a number of armed groups in Darfur, despite the ongoing dialogue between the warring factions in Doha, Qatar.
Schoolchildren in Northern Darfur - UN Photo / Albert Gonzalez Farran
In an unprecedented step, the warring factions in Darfur united and launched a number of attacks on Government forces in many areas in Northern Darfur State. In addition, the chief presidential aide in the previous Government, Minni Arkoa Minnawi, and the former Governor of Western Darfur, Abu Al-Qasem Imam, left for South Sudan in anger and from Juba announced their final divorce from the NCP, their former partner in Abuja Agreement.
The latest information from Darfur confirms that the battles are continuing on a daily basis between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the alliance of Darfur armed groups, including the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).
Maintaining the SPLM presence in the North: recharging religious and racial radicalism?
The decision of the SPLM to maintain its presence in the North adds a new challenge that is expected to fuel the volatile Sudanese political scene. SPLM leaders in North Sudan including SPLM Vice-President and Governor of Blue Nile State Melik Aggar, Deputy Secretary Yaser Arman, plus SPLM President in South Kordofan State and Deputy Governor Abdel Aziz Al-Hillu, held a press conference in order to confirm that they will maintain their political activities in the North in the case of separation. In addition, they explicitly declared that they will remain SPLM as long as the North exists.
Read SUDANVOTES' interview with a prominent leader of the Just Peace Forum
This declaration prompted angry reactions from two influential sides in northern popular circles. Firstly the Sharia League of Muslim Scholars, which issued a fatwa prohibiting the holding of the referendum, saying it would "result in cutting a piece of the land of Islam". The League, through its deputy chairman Mohammed Abdel Karim, rejected any SPLM presence in the North. Secondly the Just Peace Forum, led by Sudanese President's maternal uncle, Eng. Tayeb Al-Mustafa, whose Forum calls for separating the South and expelling SPLM from the North for good. And despite the disagreement between these two sides over the separation of the South, they have the same stand far from the secular thinking adopted by SPLM, which is expected to be maintained if it stays in the North.
Al-Tayeb Mustafa, leader of the Just Peace Forum
In this context, the authorities banned a protest parade that was going to be held by the Forum's youth sector, under the slogan, "No to unification at the expense of Sharia". Information was leaked about the reason behind the ban saying that the Government feared that the parade will pour salt into the wound and will inflame anti-SPLM sentiments in the streets of North Sudan, at the sensitive time of the referendum.
Political observers in Sudan expressed fears over the SPLM response to the provocations of the Forum and the League of Muslim Scholars, prompted by the conviction that the SPLM in the North has armed units in the Nuba Mountains and in Blue Nile, and is capable of destabilising the North if any attempt was made by any side, whether Government or popular, to force it out of North Sudan. The League of Muslim Scholars staged large demonstrations after the Friday Prayer last week, under police protection, shouting for Sharia to be applied.
Declaration of Sharia will open new fronts for confrontation
A recently broadcast video showing a Sudanese woman badly beaten by Sudanese police prompted angry reactions in all popular circles. Soon after, human rights activists, media and political groups from the opposition launched a loud campaign against the beating of women. On its part, the police department announced the launching of an official investigation to probe the incident.
However, during a popular gathering in Al-Gedarif, President Al-Bashir refused to investigate the case and called upon every person who protested over the beating of the girl to review himself religiously, stating explicitly his intention to declare the application of Sharia and the adoption of Arabic as the official language in North Sudan after the separation of the South. The League of Muslim Scholars supported the President's stand and called for more, as put it by its deputy chairman Mohammed Abdel Karim, who called for Sharia to be the sole source of legislation. The position of the Government and the League of Muslim Scholars prompted fears that a radical campaign, similar to the campaign which started in the mid 1990s and resulted in random deadly attacks, will be launched in the country.
Sadiq Al-Mahdi - file picture
The chairman of the opposition Umma Party, Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi, called two weeks ago for the creation of a nationalist government immediately after the referendum, otherwise threatening to move from its medial position between the regime and its opponents, and take a new stand in which it will join the latter and will try to overthrow the regime. Al-Mahdi added that he will quit politics if no solution is reached. The National Congress did not wait long to reply to Al-Mahdi's comments through its vice-chairman, Dr. Nafi Ali Nafi, who called upon Al-Mahdi either to quit politics or to align himself with those who seek to overthrow the regime, because there will be no nationalist government.
Soon after, Umma Party supporters took to the streets and staged a demonstration simultaneously with the demonstration staged by the League of Muslim Scholars, but the security forces dispersed the crowds by force, which resulted in Al-Mahdi's daughter and member of Umma Party leadership, Dr. Maryam Al-Sadiq, breaking her hand and bruising her head when clashing with police, which further aggravated the matter and indicated that the situation will not be swallowed easily by Umma supporters, who hail from the Ansar sect, which has a broad revolutionary base.
The other political parties met yesterday at the Umma Party House and put forward a number of political reform demands otherwise, as they put it, they will take to the streets until the regime is overthrown. The Popular Congress Party, led by the godfather of the previous regime Dr. Hassan Al-Turabi, announced that it will hold a 3-day meeting of its leadership assembly tomorrow Thursday and will declare the party's position regarding all the current issues on the Sudanese political scene. On its part, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) attended the meeting organised by the opposition, protesting that it has not been invited to the meeting. The attendance replied by saying that DUP declared his backing of the application of Sharia through its leader Mohammed Osman Al-Mirghani.
Mohamed Osman Al-Mirghani - file picture
However DUP delegate Dr. Abu Al-Hassan Farah refused the judging of the party, stressing that DUP will support the country's political powers if they took a joint stand. A member of DUP leadership told AL SHARK that a statement will be issued by Al-Mirghani clarifying h is pro-Al-Bashir position, as regards the application of Sharia in case of separation of the South. This member added that there is an explicit text in the CPA stipulating that the North will apply Sharia and the South will apply secularism during the transitional period.
The accumulation of political, military and economic crises, the repercussions of applying Sharia and the expected resistance from many sides, some of which have military power while the others have a popular base, and the persistence of the regime on its positions as regards all the disputed issues, will open the door wide open for a violent scenario, if there is no development concerning the positions of the parties involved, or if the issues themselves are not soon resolved.
