Bashir accepts possibility of independent South Sudan

President Al Bashir of Sudan has said he will accept the succession of southern Sudan if its people decide to vote for separation in the upcoming referendum in 2011. He was speaking during the 5th anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Yambio, the capital of South Sudan's Western Equatoria State, near the border with the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.

President and Vice President of Sudan          © Moses Lomayat

Although I always wanted a United Sudan, I will accept the separation of South Sudan should the southerners opt for it” Bashir declared.   GOSS President Gen Kiir echoed that saying it is up to the people of Southern Sudan to decide the fate of their destiny.”

Generally there was positive reaction from the southerners in the scene, though some remain skeptical about the conciliatory speech of President Bashir.  For example, religious leaders in Sudan remain uneasy about the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.   Archbishop Daniel Deng, who heads the Episcopal Church in Sudan, outlined his concerns that, the demarcation of the south and north border is still not clear until today and the share of oil between south and north was to be equally shared though reports say this has still not been seen out. These CPA hurdles are angering the southerners who feel cheated by the Khartoum dominated Unity Government,” lamented Archbishop Deng.

Although I always wanted a united Sudan, I will accept the separation of South Sudan should the southerners opt for it”  President Bashir declared.

The President's speech culminated in a public display of unity among the North and South leaders in Yambio.  Eyewitnesses said the ceremony was an incredible display of folklore dances and military parades before President Bashir and 1st Vice President Gen Salva Kiir, with foreign diplomats looking on.

Public Reactions
Sudan is at a crossroads. "The guns have gone silent and people can now move freely, doing their business without harassment or intimidation.   But how long will this last"  said John Ugo, a vendor in Yambio open market.  This scepticism is a far cry from the euphoria that greeted the 2005 north-south peace deal that ushered in a new era of optimism.

SPLM and NCP dignitaries at the Yambio celebrations © Moses Lomayat

The agreement, at least from the point of view of the north, offered the last chance to prevent Africa’s largest country from disintegrating like the former Yugoslav republics.The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), brokered by outside powers, ended a 21-year conflict between the Arab Muslim north and the black Christian south. According to human rights groups, more than 2 million people perished during the 1983-2005 war.

Challenges ahead
Despite the progress made, Sudan’s future challenges remain enormous. The peace partners, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in the north, have yet to define the new north-south border as it stood since Sudanese independence in 1956.

At stake here is Sudan’s oil which straddles the north-south border.  January 9 marked the fifth anniversary of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended over two decades of war between north and south Sudan, and the start of the last year of the interim period between the signing of the agreement and a referendum vote on southern self-determination in January 2011.

The curse of Oil
Disagreements continue over the division of the oil revenue which according to the CPA, the south must share equally with the north. The south complains of lack of transparency in the distribution of oil revenue while the north fears that an independent south will deprive it of the badly needed oil revenue. "Secession will leave the north in a difficult situation.   The north considers oil as a strategic commodity. "The north want their interests protected in a future independent South Sudan, or they'll sabotage it," Elijah Malok, the head of the Bank of Southern Sudan, told a symposium on 'Southern Sudan: Preparing for 2011 and Beyond', in Juba on Dec.5-6. Oil accounts for 90 percent of the north's exports," said John Luk Jok, South Sudan's Minister of Energy.

Sudan's foreign friends are encouraging both the SPLM and NCP to start discussing the post-2011 arrangements in regards oil distribution. Scott Gration, US special envoy for Sudan was quoted saying  at a news conference in Washington on Jan. 11: "I believe that we need to come up with a process now so that we can work with the parties and the parties can work between themselves to come up with solutions on citizenship, on the north-south border demarcation, on the sharing of resources - and that includes the oil - grazing rights and the Nile waters".  He added, "There's so many issues that have to be decided that we cannot wait until the referendum. It will be too late at that point. These must be done right now, and we're encouraging the process to start and we are in constant communication with the parties to help them come up with a process and a methodology to get these talks started."

Violence continues
One contentious issue which may unravel the peace deal is the growing culture of ethnic conflict in the South. Since 2008, at least 2,500 people have been killed and 350,000 displaced from their homes by ethnic conflict and cattle rustling, according to a January 2010 report compiled by aid groups including the British charity Oxfam. Prior to the outbreak of conflict in 1983, cattle rustlers used archaic weapons such as spears, and bows and arrows. Now they carry automatic assault weapons, particularly AK-47s. The source of these weapons is an open secret. SPLM secretary general Pagan Amum believes "the enemies of peace" are supplying the weapons to disrupt the referendum.   The north maintains that it is not one of the suppliers.