Disunity within NCP could cost El-Tahir his position

Many of the details of this confrontation remain within the constriction of the narrow party circles. As for the average citizen, only echoes of the confrontation were heard, leading to extreme confusion regarding a number of contradictory statements and decisions issued by different officials.   

First, there was El-Tahir\'s stand on the revised Constitution, which was deposited directly to the Parliament from the Justice Ministry without reference to the Council of Ministers as stipulated in the proceedings. Then came El-Tahir\'s decision to drop the membership of Southern representatives from the National Legislature - consisting of the National Assembly and the Council of States - as of the next parliamentary session in April 2011. Finally, the result of the Southern Sudan Referendum was announced, with an overwhelming vote for independence.

For further background information read      \"A constitution without the South\" by Mahir

El-Tahir claims his decision to drop the membership of the Southern deputies to be based upon the article (118-2) of the National Interim Constitution of 2005, which states: \"In the event of a vote for secession by the people of Southern Sudan, the seats of the members and representatives of Southern Sudan in the National Legislature shall be deemed to have fallen vacant and the National Legislature, being so reconstituted, shall complete its tenure to the next elections.\"
 
This is for the legal basis El-Tahir refers to. There is however another basis upon which El-Tahir claims his decision to be legitimate: In a press briefing held in his office recently, he informed the attendance of a document issued by the joint National Congress Party (NCP) - Sudan People\'s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Political Committee. According to this paper, the two parties agreed to exclude the Southern representatives after the South\'s vote for independence from the three national institutions, namely, the National Legislative Committee, the Electoral Commission and the Political Parties Affairs Council.

Faisal Mohamed Saleh comments:             \"The independent government of the parliament speaker\"

Atem Garang, the Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly and a member of the SPLM, soon after denied the existence of such an agreement, particularly in light of the many outstanding issues between the North and the South, which need to be cleared within the parliament. Garang backed his position by citing the reference decision issued by the presidential institution in January 2011, which states that all Southern representatives are to remain in their positions in all national institutions, until the end of the interim period on 9 July 2011.

This incongruity in positions opens the door for speculation. El-Tahir seems to be taking decisions on his own without the approval or even the consultation of the NCP. What supports this speculation is El-Tahir\'s precedents in taking autonomous decisions. Dropping the Southern representatives was already announced before by El-Tahir, right after the referendum results were announced. The reaction of the presidency was swift, cutting the decisions of El-Tahir short, by announcing that all is to remain as it is until the end of the transitional period. This is the same presidential decision the Southern representatives use to support the legitimacy of their stay in office.

What next? Regardless of the nature of the differences within the ruling party and what will accrue from them, it is difficult to imagine an end to the crisis without El-Tahir losing his position. This seems to be particularly true after El-Tahir decided to raise the stakes by threatening to resign if the Southern representatives are still in office by the coming parliamentary session in April 2011.

El-Tahir took it even further and proposed to pay three-month allocations for all Southern representatives in the North, provided that they leave before April, a proposition which was fiercely rejected by the SPLM, shutting down all opportunities El-Tahir had of making a clean out of this crisis, if with nothing, with some semblance of dignity.