South Kordofan: Political Stillness Prevails

Nowadays, the more noticeable thing in South Kordofan State (one of the nine demarcation-line States) is the heavy deployment of security services. Everywhere, you find security men holding an AK47 and roving among civilians. You also see the Popular Defence Forces, the National Police and other militias, which should have been dissolved or incorporated into one of the two formal forces according to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), commonly known as the Naivasha Agreement. However, this is not the case, and the militias are still active in broad daylight despite the Agreement.

The State currently experiences a political dormancy, which the Chairman of the Security Committee at the State\'s Legislative Council, Omar Fadl, describes as the calm before the storm. He however refused to reveal the nature of the coming storm.

There are several factors that contribute to the tension between the two key parties of the peace process in the region, the Sudan People\'s Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress Party (NCP). The first factor is the fear of not holding the Popular Consultation, to which the future of the State is associated with, before the end of the transitional period in July 2011. Omar Fadl has warned of push and pull, which will happen in the case of a constitutional vacuum that would result if Popular Consultation was not held in time. On the other hand, the Deputy Chairman of the Technical Committee of Popular Consultation, Ibrahim Blandia, has asserted that consultation will be held before the end of the transitional period.

Click here for the CPA chapter on the resolution of the conflict in Southern Kordofan.

Popular Consultation depends on the elections of the State Parliament, which was supposed to take place at the beginning of this year simultaneously with the other states. However, it was postponed until the census is re-carried out since SPLM had objected to the outcome of the first census, and then agreed with its partner in the peace process to re-count the population.
 
Although the result of the new census was announced weeks ago (about 2.4 million people, i.e. twice the previous result), the elections are still questionable. Up to now, neither constituencies have been demarcated nor have electoral rolls been set.

The second factor, which contributes to the tension in South Kordofan, is the deep gap between the perception of the NCP towards Popular Consultation and the aspirations of the SPLM vis-à-vis it. Shortly before the last elections, Vice-president, Ali Osman Taha said that the Popular Consultation was not binding in the CPA, as if to imply that it could be neglected. SPLM\'s leaders believe that the Popular Consultation is open to all possibilities, including the right to self-determination.

In the same context, an employee of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), criticised the Law of Popular Consultation, describing it as open to different interpretation, which helped the parties to raise the ceiling of expectations. IOM is funded by USAID to train political leaders of the State on the Popular Consultation. This employee has also noted that his organisation, in cooperation with the Technical Committee for Popular Consultation of the State Parliament, was able to reach an agreement between the two parties on the concept of Popular Consultation, which was confirmed by Arnold Lodi, SPLM\'s Secretary General in the State.
 

Click here for USIP\'s report on \"Why Sudan\'s Popular Consultation Matters\"

However, Lodi states that such agreement is strongly questionable, saying that there are those who assert that consultation would give autonomy for the State if its people expressed dissatisfaction with the CPA, while the NCP \"wants to limit it to development only\". Lodi further cites what happened in the Blue Nile, the other state that had been granted the right to Popular Consultation. All representatives in the Legislative Council of the Blue Nile agreed on one vision, but when the representatives of the NCP were called to the centre, they returned with different opinions. This is a clear sign from the SPLM Secretary-General that the conflict between the two main parties in South Kordofan may be activated at any moment.

Finally, the approach of the referendum and its expected consequences of splitting the country into two halves put everyone on high alert and under severe pressure, let alone the demarcation State of South Kordofan, which lies exactly on the fire line between North and South.

The two states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan joined the Sudan People\'s Liberation Army (SPLA) during the civil war. The CPA has assigned the mechanism of \"Popular Consultation\" to the two states as a compromise commensurate with their status as demarcation states.

Considering the details of the \"Popular Consultation\" according to the text of the CPA, it is clear how much it is open to various interpretations, starting with the right to self-determination according to SPLM\'s vision and ending with making it a mere plaint mechanism. However, it is indisputable that its procedures are long and complex, and pass through several agencies and levels before reaching the final form, even though they are governed by accurately specified times that do not exceed three months in total.