Why was the Arab Spring late in Sudan?

An observer watching the ongoing demonstrations in Sudan may simply think they lead to yet another Arab Spring revolution, especially that the language used at this stage, which has become a source of pride and boasting, bears much resemblance to successful Arab Spring revolutions. Many in Sudan are hopeful of seeing a revolution reminiscent of the two uprisings of October and March-April.

But, before going into the Arab Spring revolutions, it is necessary to ask some questions of relevance to the Sudanese issue, not as an isolated case from its surroundings.

Jafar Nimeri during a state visit to West Germany in 1978 - Photo: Bundesarchiv

The Sudanese people have had precedence over other countries as far as revolutions are concerned. They overthrew two military regimes (Abboud and Nimeiri), and established a democratic system on the ruins of the crumbling military regimes. However, if so is the case, why haven't the Sudanese people taken the lead, especially that all circumstances leading to revolution are available?

The answer to this question is given by ordinary Sudanese citizens who experienced two previous revolutions. Today, they are fully aware that the revolution does not mean changing one regime for another, and democracy is not just ballot boxes and traditional parties that eventually ascend the seat of power -- they rather want to choose what they deem appropriate with absolute freedom.

Experience has taught the Sudanese people many lessons, so they will not come out and risk a revolution with unwanted results. They must know much about the alternative that is capable of introducing true change in the country.
 
Past experiences have convinced the citizens that the traditional parties, which enjoyed people’s confidence time and again, proved to be a complete failure, as they adopted a traditional view for ruling the country and failed to trigger a democratic change. All that came along were divisions --into right and left and then into right and right -- when differences developed.

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People’s memory still teems with images of such scenes that repeatedly flash before their eyes. Every democratic stage brings about the same familiar faces. People may change but the mentality remains the same because ideological concepts are identical (Ansar, Khatmiyya and the National Islamic Front), and they form an invincible barrier before other parties. Alliances could even be set up to thwart any other leftist parties.

During Sudan’s third democratic rule, the country was clearly controlled by traditional and right-wing parties because the election law and the constitution were in favour of these parties. During their rule, they failed to achieve the aspirations of Sudanese masses for a democracy which serves the people. Instead, partisan wrangling and conflicts increased. On every occasion traditional parties create pretexts and thus overthrow the democratic government.

Illustration by Khalid Albaih

A source believed to belong to the National Congress Party, who preferred to remain anonymous, said: The Sudanese people are used to eating crumbs of bread with water... They will not come out this time so that Sadiq al-Mahdi or Mohammad Osman al-Mirghani would rule the country. Their time is completely over and gone! For the Sudanese people and revolutionary forces are now the real substitute. Every time, the revolution is stolen, but not this time.”

The next revolution in Sudan may not recognise the reactionary parties which have misused democracy and exhausted their opportunities.
 
The Sudanese citizens feel bitter and lament the loss of the third democracy. The failure of democratic experiments caused the Sudanese citizens to consider carefully any steps they might take, not because the current situation is better than before, or because the current regime has brought about prosperity and dignity for the people.

All agree that the current regime is the worst the country has ever seen. It is during this regime that wars have broken out, Sudan has been fragmented, taxes have increased, prices have gone up, and the iron fist suppresses those who stand against cruelty and injustice.

The Arab Spring revolutions succeeded in some countries because people desired freedom, democracy and wanted to discard totalitarian rule. The situation in Sudan may be slightly different because the Sudanese people exercised democracy before and brought about two revolutions. Their search now is not for democracy, but for a democratic alternative. They do not want to come ‘out of the frying pan into the fire’.